by The Future of the GCC: Reform, Irrelevance, or New Alliances?
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established in 1981, has played a significant role in maintaining regional stability and economic cooperation among its six member states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Initially formed as a counterweight to Iran’s regional influence, the GCC has navigated multiple geopolitical shifts over the decades. However, recent events, including the Israel-Iran direct military clashes, the Hamas-Israel war, and the uncertain future of Syria, have reshaped the security landscape of the Middle East.
With these changes, the GCC’s traditional role and strategic priorities are being questioned. Can it remain relevant in its current form? Or does it require structural and policy reforms to address the realities of today’s Middle East?
Challenges Facing the GCC
1. Evolving Security Threats
For decades, Iran was perceived as the primary security challenge to the Gulf states. However, the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war have triggered a wider regional crisis, involving Israel and Iran in direct military confrontation. These events indicate that the Gulf region’s security landscape is no longer defined by a single adversary but by a complex web of conflicts and shifting alliances.
Additionally, the potential overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria could lead to a new power struggle, impacting GCC interests. The GCC members must reassess their security policies to address these multifaceted threats effectively.
2. Internal Divisions Within the GCC
While the GCC was designed to promote unity among its members, internal political and ideological differences have repeatedly surfaced:
Qatar-GCC Rift: Although the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar ended in 2021, differences in foreign policy remain. Qatar maintains closer ties with Iran and supports Islamist movements, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE oppose them.
Diverging Views on Israel: Bahrain and the UAE have normalized relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, while Saudi Arabia is considering a similar move. However, Kuwait and Qatar maintain strong anti-normalization stances, creating a split in GCC-Israel relations.
Economic Competition: Instead of aligning their economic strategies, GCC states increasingly compete in areas such as tourism, technology, and finance. Saudi Arabia’s push to become a regional economic hub challenges the UAE’s long-standing dominance in trade and business.
3. The Role of External Powers
The United States has historically been the primary security guarantor for the GCC, but its strategic shift towards Asia and fluctuating commitment to Middle Eastern security raise concerns. Meanwhile, China and Russia have expanded their influence in the region, offering economic and military partnerships. This multipolar world order forces the GCC to reconsider its reliance on traditional allies and explore diversified security and economic partnerships.
The Way Forward: Reforming the GCC for the Future
To remain relevant, the GCC must adapt to the region’s evolving political, security, and economic realities. Here’s how it can do so:
1. Redefining Security Priorities
Beyond Iran: While Iran remains a factor, the GCC must recognize new security threats, including non-state actors, cyber warfare, and economic instability. A regional security framework that includes counterterrorism, cybersecurity cooperation, and maritime security would be more effective than a singular focus on Iran.
Joint Defense Mechanism: The GCC should strengthen its collective defense capabilities, possibly by expanding the Peninsula Shield Force, its joint military force, and enhancing defense ties with Western allies.
2. Strengthening Political Unity
Institutional Reforms: A more structured and effective decision-making mechanism is needed to avoid internal policy conflicts. A GCC Security Council with binding resolutions could help achieve greater unity in foreign policy.
Diplomatic Mediation: The GCC should play a more proactive role in mediating regional conflicts, such as the Israel-Palestine issue and the Yemen crisis, to enhance its credibility as a stabilizing force.
3. Expanding Economic Integration
Unified Economic Policies: The GCC should accelerate plans for a common Gulf market, reducing economic competition among member states and creating a stronger collective economy.
Diversification Beyond Oil: Investment in technology, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure can help GCC states future-proof their economies and reduce their reliance on hydrocarbons.
4. Navigating Global Alliances
Balancing U.S., China, and Russia: While maintaining strong ties with the U.S., the GCC should also leverage economic and security partnerships with China and Russia without compromising its strategic autonomy.
Engaging with Emerging Regional Powers: Stronger ties with Egypt, Turkey, and even Israel (for some members) could create a wider regional security architecture, enhancing the GCC’s strategic influence.
Conclusion
The GCC stands at a crossroads. The shifting regional dynamics—particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, the future of Syria, and internal divisions—require a comprehensive reassessment of its role. If the GCC fails to evolve, it risks becoming less relevant as member states pursue individual interests. However, if it embraces structural reforms, stronger economic integration, and a broader security approach, it can reinvent itself as a more effective regional alliance.
The GCC’s ability to adapt to these changes will determine whether it remains a key player in the Middle East’s future—or fades into the background as a relic of a bygone era.
