by Global trade is unraveling. The U.S. has imposed sweeping tariffs on India (averaging 25 %), while global institutions like the WTO are atrophying. India has long relied on themes like self‑reliance and selective FTAs—but as protectionism rises, the country risks being left behind. It’s time to reconsider deeper regional integration: entry into the CPTPP(Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), and strategic alignment with ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations)and the EU.
Rather than treating trade pacts as threats to domestic growth, India must view them as the scaffold upon which exports, jobs and technology can scale.
The Issue: Standing Still in a Shifting Global Trade Order
India opted out of RCEP in 2019 citing balance‑of‑payments and industrial concerns, even though ASEAN + partners now cover ~30 % of the world’s GDP ($~30 trn) and account for 2.2 billion people . A similar fate befell the CPTPP, revived post‑2017 without the U.S. but now politically stronger with the UK’s accession in 2024, swelling economic coverage and digital‑trade standards.
India is trading more under existing FTAs: origin‑certificate issuance rose from 684,724 in 2023‑24 to 720,996 in 2024‑25, suggesting exporters are keen—but India still lacks access to growing CPTPP markets and to deeper trade norms. A leading editorial recently urged India to “reconsider CPTPP and integrate with ASEAN and EU” to anchor capital flight and export slumps.
Meanwhile, India–EU trade negotiations are stuck on rules of origin, market access, and environmental protections like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Without resolution, even an FTA won’t deliver growth.
Data Speaks: How Big Are These Blocks?
| Bloc / Agreement | Population | Global GDP share | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPTPP members (12 nations incl. UK, Japan, Canada, etc.) | >500 m | 14.4 % (~US $15.8 trn) | World’s 4th‑largest trade area |
| ASEAN region | >680 m | 5th‑largest economy comprising all ten member states | EU–ASEAN trade in 2023: €252 b, with EU’s deficit narrowing to €63 b |
CPTPP not only offers tariff reductions but also best‑in‑class chapters on services, e‑commerce, investment and state‑owned enterprise reform. ASEAN negotiations remain alive for EU region‑to‑region FTA—more reason India should deepen ties both east and west.
Internal Debate: Openness vs. Caution
India’s leadership is split:
“India should be part of RCEP, CPTPP… to boost MSMEs, which contribute 40 % of India’s exports.” — NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam
“We must protect farmers and MSMEs before signing any FTA that harms local industry.” — External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar
This mirrors past practice: protecting slow‑growth sectors at the expense of reforming structural deficits. Yet global competitors like Vietnam and Malaysia have used CPTPP or ASEAN FTAs to industrialise rapidly.
Way Forward: A Three‑Track Integration Strategy
- Seek CPTPP Accession
- Apply in 2026 for certification of standards compliance; existing CPTPP rules allow new entrants (India is APEC member) under mutual consent.
- Negotiate a “shield package” for sensitive sectors (dairy, textiles, small‑vegetable tariffs) to allow transition.
- Use accession to incentivise reform in IP, digital‑trade and procurement—establishing India as rule‑maker, not mere follower.
- Accelerate ASEAN + EU Negotiations
- Construct a calibrated ASEAN “plus” trade initiative focused on supply‑chain linkage and services liberalisation.
- Revive India‑EU FTA with shared commitments on CBAM, data governance, professional mobility and industrial standards.
- Leverage ASEAN cluster (including Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore) to “anchor” India–EU negotiations, allowing clinicians to deal with divergent interests.
- Reform Domestic Trade Policy
- Rationalise tariffs (currently 4‑digit rates) using a low tariff corridor around 10 %.
- Update Indian Model BIT to permit CPTPP‑compliant ISDS (Investor‑State Dispute Settlement) with environmental and labour Annex.
- Provide adjustment support and export competitiveness packages for MSMEs: skilling, access to digital infrastructure, trade financing.
Conclusion
India is now in the eye of a global trade storm. The collapse of the WTO’s appellate body and the imposition of new U.S. tariffs demand proactive reinvention. Remaining outside CPTPP and unresolved with ASEAN or EU isn’t cautious—it’s costly.
But external engagement cannot substitute internal reform. India must marry trade opening with domestic protections and a forward‑leaning industrial policy. A CPTPP accession, ASEAN‑EU alignment, and modernization are not just separate trade deals—they are the architecture India needs to reach a $10 trn economy by 2035.
If implemented rightly, this integration won’t undercut India’s farmers or MSMEs—it will arm them with access to the world’s fastest‑growing middle class. India must reconsider the CPTPP, deepen ties with ASEAN, and negotiate boldly with the EU. That is not nostalgia for globalisation—it is the strategy for prosperity.
